How Long is The Property Cycle?
Seven years? Ten years? Think again.
How Was the Cycle Discovered?
The Land Property Cycle was first identified by an economist called Homer Hoyt. Born in Saint Joseph, Missouri, he conducted path-breaking research on land economics, developed an influential approach to the analysis of neighborhoods and housing markets, refined local area economic analysis, and was a major figure in the development of suburban shopping centers in the decades after World War II.
His sector model of land use remains one of his most well-known contributions to urban scholarship.
His book, "One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago" was FIRST published by the University of Chicago in 1933, and it covered the Chicago land values between 1830-1933.
And then the land cycle became more famous by Fred Harrison in his book 'Boom Bust' and 'The Power in the Land'.
Fred Harrison observes that there is a house price crash roughly every 18 years. There was one in 1953-4, one in 1971-2, and one in 1989-90. The first edition of his book was released in 2005 and predicted a house price crash in 2007-8. We all know what happened next...